Okay but seriously. Some such as Mark have suggested Democrats will have their majority seriously tested next around. Okay, where?
Here are the Democratic seats up next time:
1. Ron Wyden, two + term incumbent, Oregon, presumably running for reelection.
2. Blanche Lincoln, Arkansas, two term incumbent, running for reelection.
3. Pat Murray: Washington, three term incumbent, presumably running for reelection.
4. Barbera Mikulski, Maryland, four term incumbent, presumably running for reelection.
5. Chuck Schumer, New York, two term incumbent, (previously won reelection 74-26 against a Republican candidate).
6. Patrick Leahy, Vermont, six term incumbent, Judiciary Committee Chairman, presumably running for reelection.
7. Russ Feingold, Wisconsin, three term incumbent, running for reelection.
8. Evan Bayh, Indiana, two term incumbent, very popular.**
Those are safe, almost certainly safe. All are popular incumbents, and most are in blue, if not downright liberal states.
These here might provide some problems.
1. Harry Reid, Nevada, if Jon Porter challenges him. But still Reid has to be a big favorite, especially after Nevada’s leap to Democrats.
2. Ken Salazar…if someone challenges him, maybe Coffman or McInnis, but after seeing 2008’s results can you see anyone beating Salazar in Colorado, and the state is only getting bluer. Not to mention he’s an actual moderate.
3. Barbera Boxer: If she retires, or gets a challenge from Schwartznegger, this could be mildly interesting. She’s never been especially popular. California is getting more liberal all the time.
4. Daniel Inouye: Hawaii, if he retires, at age 86, could be trouble if Ligle runs, but after Obama’s margin this time, whew. I don’t see voters electing a conservative like Ligle to a federal, national position over Rep. Mazie Hirono, who Ligle beat very narrowly in 2002 in a good environment for Republicans, particularly in Hawaii. Republicans have since given back a lot of ground in Honolulu and the State Legislature. If he stays he should win easily, as he is a universally popular, legendary figure in their politics, kind of like Robert Byrd in West Virgina.
5. Obama’s open seat, but really, what Republican is going to win state wide in the New Illinois? It’s been a while since that happened in a high profile race and they have no bench.
6. Delaware: Same thing here. There might be Mike Castle, if he were to run for senate at age 71. Even then I’m don’t think he would be favored to beat John Carney or Beau Biden.
7. Chris Dodd’s open seat might be a big race if Rell decides to run for it. But then I think that Rep. Murphy would be strongly favored in a neutral environment.
8. This is the seat I would worry most about. North Dakota’s Byron Dorgan has been a popular figure in state politics for almost 30 years, but the state has an automatic Republican inclination, and Republicans would definitely be pushing extroadiniarily popular Governor John Hoeven who easily beat the two Attorney General in 2000 to win it the first place, then won his two subsequent elections with 77% of the vote. This would be a slash of the titans. Hoeven would have to have a narrow lead. The only problem is that I don’t think Hoeven wants to be a senator. Republicans have asked him to run twice before, (in 2004 and 2006), and Rove practically pleaded with him in early 2006, looking at a poll that had him six points ahead of Kent Conrad. I see no reason why he’d suddenly run 2010.
Okay, those are a few races Republicas might have a shot in, not even a big shot, if everything went their way and they got their dream candidates.
So, Democrats hold 16 seats, Republicans 17, it’s at near parity.
Republicans have got to be nervous about these seats though.
1. Arlen Specter. His margins keep going down every time in the state wide Senate races. Ed Rendell is not going to challenge him, but there are plenty of Congressman who might, or in the Democrats case, congresswoman, Allyson Schwartz, who represents most of Montgomery county.
2. George Voinovich wants to run for reelection in Ohio, but how well would he do. He’s getting old, and he’s popularity ratings have been mediocre for years now. I always give him a small bit of affection for being the sane Republican who effectively blocked John Bolton, (forcing an interim appointment). But the Democratic bench is now two feet deep in Ohio. LG Lee Fisher, Attorney General Richard Cordray, Rep. Betty Sutton, and strongest of all Rep. Tim Ryan, a popular moderate. Voinovich looks toast at this point.
3. KY-SEN: Bunning is unpopular, a loud mouth, and a poor campaigner. He’s won his two races by .5 percentage points, and one percentage points, respectively and looks set to face his toughest challenger yet in Rep. Ben Chandler. Especially if he repeats his shennanigans of the last campaign. Kentucky Senate races tend to be close too.
4. KS-SEN: Kathleen Sebelius is said to looking at a run for this open senate seat. She would make it competetive.
5. OK-SEN: Gov. Brad Henry could beat Coburn, who isn’t a good campaigner and isn’t popular.
6. AZ-SEN: John McCain’s probably going to retire, that leaves his seat open to either Napilotano, or Rep. Giffords, depending on if Napilitano is Attorney General or not.
7. David Vitter is up, and his deal with prostitutes really hurts him with evangelical voters. Former Rep Don Cazayoux may be the candidate to beat him, or former Rep Chris John in a rematch.
8. FL-SEN: Mel Martinez has weak favorables and early polls show him tied with Rep. Ron Klein and Rep Kathy Castor.
9. Richard Burr, North Carolina. This seat has reelected an incumbent since 1962. Rep. Brad Miller is an oft mentioned name, but so is popular Attorney General Roy Cooper who has nowhere to go this year but up. Richard Burr is extremely conservative as well, and not especially popular. This would be a barnburner with Cooper.
So there are a lot of competitive races next time around. None especiailly likely for the Democrats, except for North Dakota if the Republicans somehow convince Hoeven that being a popular governor at home is not as good as being a weak new freshman senator in the minority party a thousand miles away. Not saying they couldn’t really gain steam, but I don’t see them picking up more than 2 seats.
At this point, I would gurantee that Democrats pick up at least two seats, at least, given the landscape, but the number could be as high as six if they get all their candidates, and everything goes right for them and Barack Obama is a popular President.
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I think we’ll have modest gains (1-3 Senate seats) in 2010 just because of the large number of endangered and possibly retiring republicans and lack of endangered dems. The only reason Im predicting gains that low is the inevitable blowback from two years of complete democratic control of government. If Obama’s first two years do turn out to be a big success we could have big gains once again.
I’d put our tp pickup opportunities in this order:
1. KY
2. AZ – Ya, I don’t see much chance McCain runs
3. OH – I saw Voinovich retires rather than faces a likely hard primary challenge
4. FL – Please run Alex Sink
5. NC
6. PA – Doubt Specter runs. If he does he’ll get primaried again.
7. KS – Only because I think Sebelius runs for the open seat.
There is no way Burr wins reelection – and we have tons of good Democrats here, many of whom risk nothing since they hold state offices that aren’t up until 2012. If Cooper runs it will be an absolute blowout.
Note this projection comes from someone who thought Kay Hagan was going to win as soon as she announced she was going to run!
They certainly make more sense than the last guy who tried prediction what will happen in 2010 before the 2008 races were over. Here’s some of my reactions:
AR-Sen: I don’t know how safe Blanche Lincoln is. What if Mike Huckabee wants to run?
NV-Sen: Jon Porter just lost his reelection bid, which I think tends to diminish one’s winning capabilities especially in a statewide race. Besides, Reid’s working his tail off to win in 2010; he’s not planning to become another Daschle.
CT-Sen: I actually think Ned Lamont might go at it if Dodd retires, and Murphy would wait until 2012 to take on Lieberman, because I think Murphy wants to do that.
ND-Sen: If for whatever reason, Dorgan retires, all bets are off.
OH and PA Sen: Just pulling this out of my ass here, but there’s a crazy chance that Specter and Voinovich might cross over to caucus with the Democrats. Now that the GOP has a vacuum in leadership, it might happen…
And lastly…
LA-Sen: I don’t know….by 2010 Vitter’s constituents might have forgiven him. Christian conservatives tend to forgive Republicans more than Democrats for sexual peccadilloes.
Ya, I’d like to get someone in there a bit younger, but the guy has gained a solid grip on a conservative congressional district to the point that noone even challenged him this year. He seems like the kind of socially conservative populist who would have a shot running statewide.
We need as many blogs as possible on board to draft candidates into these senate races. We can do in 2010, exactly what we did this year.
Republicans were unable to spend any significant money against Landreiu because they were too busy helping Schaffer and Sununu and Dole et al.
There are over a dozen races where Democrats have the capability to take the fight to the Republicans.
Chandler in Kentucky, though I’d prefer Luallen so we can keep Chandler’s house seat.
Henry in Oklahoma, Napolitano in AZ, Sebelius in Kansas, Alex Sink in Florida, Tom Vilsack in Iowa, Cazayoux in Louisiana, Robin Carnahan in Missouri, John Lynch in New Hampshire, Roy Cooper in North Carolina, polls showed Jennifer Brunner beating Voinovich in Ohio, Schwartz in PA.
thats 12 seats
that doesn’t count Alaska (Berkowitz?), Georgia (Baker?), South Carolina (Erwin?), or South Dakota (Herseth-Sandlin, but I’d love to see Daschle try again)
Open up too many seats and the Republicans can’t possibly defend them all and still go on offense.
I don’t think we have much to defend. I wouldn’t be worried about IL unless Rev. Wright was picked. I also highly doubt Reid or Salzar would lose the way their states are trending.
I doubt Boxer or Dodd will retire. Both are now senior members. Dodd will probably be Banking Chair this next Congress, then take over HELP next session and forign affairs soon after. He’s in a great position, same with Boxer. Dorgan is the only one I’m really worried about. Castle is rumored to be running already but I doubt it. I think we’d hold that and HI even if him and Lingle do run.
Worst case we lose 3-4 seats but I’d be surprised if we lose more then one.
As for pickups. Depends on candidate quality. I think picking of Snarlin Arlen is very likely assuming we don’t nominate Matthews. Schwartz would crush Pat Toomey who will beat Specter in the primary if he doesn’t retire.
If we get good recruits in OH (Ryan hopefully), NC (Cooper), KY (the Lt. Gov, AG, Auditor have been getting more buzz then Chandler, all would crush him), KS (Sebelius), AZ (If McCain retires Napilotano or Giffords would crush any Republican) or FL (Castor or Sink) then we will win and they’ll be CO, NH style races.
I would bet we win PA, OH, NC, KY AZ and FL but lose ND after Dorgan retires at this point.
We need to get draft efforts up early January though for the best candidates. And I’d love to try to get strong challengers in more longshot races.
If Chuck Grassley retires, which is very possible given he’ll be 77 in 2010, reportedly dislikes his status in the minority, and has been in Congress since 1975 and the Senate since 1981…
The open seat would be close, but I think a Bruce Braley or even a Tom Vilsack would win this seat against a Tom Latham or whoever Iowa Republicans could field (boy, have their bench really evaporated).
Barbara Boxer will not retire and will not be beaten for re-election…also, no way B. Dorgan loses
For the most part on the safe races. The only caveats I’d add is there could be a possibility of Rossi running in Washington, although 2 losses has to do damage to your image. The other is that I think there’s a very slim possibility that my Congressman Paul Ryan could challenge Feingold. I think if he’s going to go statewide in 2010, it’ll be probably be in the Governor’s race but I think he’s really holding out for 2012 when Herb Kohl is expected to retire.
When it comes to our “endangered” seats, I don’t think Harry Reid is in any real trouble, Republicans have no bench in Connecticut and do you really think California will send a Republican to the US Senate.
Democrats have to be favored in both the IL and DE seats, but until we know whose filling those seats its impossible to speculate on the competitiveness of them.
I agree with you on Hawaii. Inouye runs, he wins. If not, Lingle may run but a Senate race between Hirono and Lingle will be much different than a Governor’s race between them.
When incumbents lose it can almost always be attributed to one or a combination of these three factors: their way out of step with their state (Santorum, Sununu), they’ve done something really stupid (George Allen, Conrad Burns) or they get swept out in a wave (Gordon Smith, Chaffee). Once in a while you get a race like 2006 MO-SEN, where you have a candidate who hasn’t really had any fireable sins, but you just run into a buzzsaw of a candidate. What does that have to do with anything? Its why I don’t believe Salazar will lose, barring an abject failure in the first 2 years of the Obama administration.
Where I do disagree with you is North Dakota. ND’s senators are two of the most popular in the country sporting 70%+ approval ratings. Hoeven’s shown no interest in the Senate before and I don’t see why that would change now.